Peter Moore: The USA is full of surprises

As a Brit I found the result of the US Presidential election bizarre. When facing the choice of a convicted criminal or a lawyer who prosecuted criminals they chose the convicted criminal. But this misunderstands America.

I was in the US this summer and spent time on a river cruise in Europe with Americans last year. This does not make me an expert on American politics but did give me a small insight into the psyche. From this side of the pond we forget that the USA is a very different country. 

One supporter who was going to vote for Trump said: “He’s not a nice man and I wouldn’t want him as my neighbour but he’s a great leader”. They all know that he says strange things which do not make sense but that is “just him”. 

I once spoke to a social worker from New York. At the time there was legislation going through about unemployment benefit. Anyone would only be allowed a limited number of weeks on unemployment benefit in their whole life.  After their allowance was used up all financial help would stop. Being a social worker on the front line I assumed that she would be horrified but she supported the change. “They should just get a job. If they have no money that is not the government’s problem, it is their problem.” 

Being out of work does not only mean no income. It might mean no healthcare, no doctor. For someone in work employment legislation is very different from the UK.  Elon Musk may be the wealthiest man on the planet but his business model relies on hiring and firing. There is no job security. 

The middle-class Americans in California have the luxury of discussing the finer points of the constitution, climate change and abortion. They are shocked by the obvious sexism and misogyny.  Would a Trump presidency lead to Ukraine losing the war? How can he appoint someone who does not believe vaccines to be in charge of the health of the nation?

Statistics tell us that in many areas the Biden administration has been very successful. The crime rate is falling. The growth rate of America is the largest in the G7 at 2.7 per cent a figure Rachel Reeves can only dream of. The unemployment rate was 3.8 pedr cent last year compared to a long-term average of 5.69 per cent. 

The “good times” under the last Trump administration were largely financed by borrowing. By 2020, when Trump left office the US government was borrowing 123 per cent of the GDP or national income compared to our figure of 98 per cent which is still too high. The US is spending more on debt repayment than defence. 

But statistics do not pay the grocery bill. Neither does concern over misogyny, foreign wars or abortion. The price of eggs and bread were major issues. Both have shot up although neither avian flu nor the Ukrainian war was the fault of President Biden. 

Petrol has increased hitting middle Americans where gas guzzling cars are king. To people struggling with petrol and grocery bills these costs  are more important than economic statistics or climate change. 

To the question borrowed from Ronald Regan “do you feel better or worse off than four years ago” the answer for most of the people is “worse off”. 

Was Kamala Harris’s failure also a part of an international trend. Over the last year most incumbent governments lost elections, including in the UK. In Poland, Germany, Belgium, Austria Italy Australia and New Zealand the ruling parties are not popular. Are western governments being forced by the electorate to promise the impossible? No country can continue to offer more in healthcare, education or defence without growth or increased taxes. Once a government is elected they become unpopular if they do not deliver the impossible. 

It takes time for economic statistics to feed through to living standards. The final irony of the Biden presidency is that his financial improvements will be felt by the average American over the next few years. President Biden’s legacy could be to ensure that President Trump is popular.