Peter Vosper: September market numbers show mixed results

Private sales showed an increase of 8.9% which suggests a return to confidence and spending by the private buyers.

However, when the final figures were announced the private retail sales increased by just 4.5% and these were distorted by the number of self-registrations many dealers made in order to meet their objectives for the third quarter.

Another reason was the number of retail customers who were waiting to see which electric vehicles were going to be eligible for the £3750 grant announced by the government in July. Unfortunately, some of the criteria on sustainability, emissions, and other factors, meant only two vehicles the Ford Puma and the Ford achieved this and although a number of other vehicles met the standards for the reduced amount of a £1500 grant this was not enough to provide the reduction necessary to stimulate the market.

The biggest sector increase in volume was the pure electric with a jump of over 56,000 over last September but the Plug-in Hybrid sector grew by over 24,000 - 56% - which shows the trend towards this sector who are not prepared to commit to pure electric until the government sort out the infrastructure and charging facilities for those who cannot have a wall box.

The fleet market increase was understated, as the number of sales to Motability customers dropped by 15% in the month which means there were more large fleet and rental sales by manufacturers, particularly of electric vehicles to help reach their annual objectives and avoid fines. 

The traditional balance of the market in terms of brand shares was disrupted in a big way by the Chinese. BYD, Jacoo and Omoda, Chery, and several new entrants, added to the already well-established MG brand, raised the Chinese share to over 13%.  There were three Chinese cars in the top ten best sellers in September, the Jaecoo 7, the BYD Seal, and the MG HS. With several new Chinese brands likely to hit our shores many industry experts are forecasting this share to grow above 20% as we approach 2030. 

The light commercial vehicle market, which is driven by many British businesses of all sizes, continues to struggle. The largest sector, the unt fell just over 2% but the year-to-date fall is still almost 10% down on the year to date. Business is waiting to see what is in the budget and are hoping there will be some stimulus for growth and no more bashing.

There has also been a drop off in sales in vehicles like the Ranger Pick-Up, following the government change in classification to a car. The double cab has a towing capacity of 3.5Tonnes and is used by farmers, the Police, lifeguards, and small businesses and VAT will no longer be recoverable. Potential buyers are hoping for a change back in the budget which would be common sense.

These are additional challenges for the government which have effects on the industry, business and private buyers before the market can return to normal.