Motoring with Paul Jolly

Predicting future values of any commodity is the key to wise investments and the classic car world is as hard as any to read ahead. However, there is a pattern in previous surges in value which cannot be ignored.

The correlation between price peaks and the passage of time is unmistakable and the upward curve tends to start around the 25 years old mark, peak around 35 years and start to tail off after around 45 years. 

This is due to several factors which drive values. There is the ‘My Dad Had One of Those’ and also an aspirational desire for nostalgic reasons. For example, poster cars that teenagers yearned for or remember being driven in when young. Now in middle age and with disposable income, they can afford to indulge in their dream car.

This explains why 55 year old classics like Lotus Cortinas, are no longer where they used to be and 1950’s gems like Bristol, Alvis, and Riley can be snapped up for a fraction of their renovation costs. The buyers simply do not remember them and hold no memorable love for them.

A further spike occurs after the 60 year point as bearded gentlemen of a certain age indulge their retirement funds into ‘Man Cave’ projects.

Of course, there are exceptions and rule breakers like the James Bond Aston Martin DB5, Jaguar E Type and Ferraris which are in a special league of their own.

Examples that are emerging now with potential growth include the Aston Martin DB7, Bentley Arnage, M series BMW’s and Japanese hot rods such as Nissan Skyline, Mitsubishi GTO and the Toyota Supra, all of which had huge appeal when new but impossible price tags to their youthful admirers. It is now feasible to pick up any of this list substantially below £20,000 but which can almost certainly increase in time.

Current peaks are the 1980’s hot hatches and Cosworth Fords plus the highly useable Mercedes SL from the late 1980’s, as seen in TV’s Dallas.

My tip? The Italian thoroughbred Ferrari V8 powered 385bhp Maserati 4200GT with manual gearbox around £15000.