Peter Moore: My first and last reflection on politics

When I first started writing a column in the 1980s (yes, I am that old) the editor gave me some advice. “Try to avoid politics, especially party politics.

In South Devon there are three main parties, Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. If you write a passionate piece supporting one party you will alienate two thirds of the readership. That may be an option in a national paper but not here covering a total population of about 150,000.” 

For 40 years I avoided party politics which I did not find too difficult. I do not belong to a political party and am not tribal. Today I am going to break this habit (sort of) by trying to look objectively at the first six months of this Labour Government. Why have they become so unpopular so quickly? 

It is clear that the country is facing serious financial problems. We can debate whether this is due to the pandemic, Brexit, Liz Truss’s budget or many other reasons but this does not help solve the problem. The country has a large deficit with a large national debt, a situation which has created problems in the last week. The NHS, social care and education are in a mess and, with the Ukraine war, we need to spend more on defence. 

During the election campaign the Conservatives realised two important things: that they were going to lose and that any future government of whatever party would need to either raise taxes or cut spending. They attacked Labour by suggesting that they would raise taxes. This meant that in the following election, probably in 2028, they could say, “I told you so,” ensuring that Labour were a one term government.  

The Labour Party responded by pledging not to raise income tax or VAT, quoting the song from “Only fools and Horses.” This was a successful election strategy but created problems in government. The only other option is growth but this is like waiting for a hot day in January. 

Everyone is happy for a government to increase taxes as long as they are paid by someone else. Unfortunately, there are not enough billionaires with private jets and luxury yachts. Even if there were, the mega rich have very good accountants who would find loopholes. The only way to raise enough money is by increasing taxes on most people which means income tax, VAT or National Insurance. In a complicated modern economy where everything is interlinked it is not possible to tax the bosses and not the “working people”.

To understand Keir Starmer we need to look at his modus operandi. When he became leader of the Labour Party it was dominated by the far left. They did not look like a government in waiting. He carried out changes which were unpopular with the membership, including throwing Jeremy Corbyn out of the party. By being unpopular and making difficult decisions early on he paved the way for an election victory. Although he only achieved 33.7 per cent of the vote, even people who did not vote Labour were not afraid of a Labour Government. Are the necessary but unpopular decisions now going to lead to future electoral success or have the Labour Government blown any chance of winning another election? 

Opinion polls often ask the question “If there was an election tomorrow how would you vote?” At the risk of giving away a spoiler, there is not going to be an election tomorrow. Harold Wilson once said that a week is a long time in politics. Four years is even longer. We cannot even be sure who will be the main opposition to Labour in the next election. 

The major test is whether people feel better off in four years. To quote James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist, “It’s the economy stupid”. Less well known is his quote “Don’t forget health care.” If Kier Starmer can deliver on these issues, he could still be a two term Prime Minister but this is far from certain.  

My only prediction is that from now on I will follow my first editor’s advice and avoid writing about politics.