Sally Allen: Conservative crisis of major proportions is looming large

Later this year, I am sure that we will see a re-run of the total collapse of the Tory Government, similar to John Major’s nightmare, only much worse and more significant. Major’s government was up to its ears in sleaze, in-fighting and of course, problems with our European friends. The Maastricht Treaty, signed in 1992, aimed to deepen European integration by establishing the European Union and introducing measures such as the single currency, the Euro. Major faced significant challenges in ratifying the treaty, with rebellions from within his own party leading to narrow victories in parliamentary votes.

The issue of Europe became a defining factor in Major's premiership, sowing discord and weakening his authority. Added to this, the economic landscape during Major's tenure was also tumultuous. The early 1990s saw the UK engulfed in a severe recession, precipitated by a housing market crash and a crisis in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Major's decision to enter the ERM, which aimed to stabilize exchange rates ahead of adopting the Euro, ultimately backfired. The pound came under intense pressure, forcing the government to raise interest rates dramatically in a futile attempt to defend it. This policy, known as Black Wednesday, led to Britain's humiliating exit from the ERM and dealt a severe blow to the government's credibility on economic matters.

Economic instability, coupled with the Conservatives internal divisions, created a fertile ground for opposition parties, particularly Labour, to capitalize on public dissatisfaction. One of the most infamous scandals during Major's premiership was the Cash for Questions affair. It involved allegations that Conservative Members of Parliament had accepted money from Mohamed Al-Fayed, the owner of Harrods, in exchange for asking questions in the House of Commons. The scandal led to several MPs being implicated and resulted in public outrage over the perceived influence of money in politics.

Then there was the David Mellor affair. Mellor, who was serving as a government minister at the time, was having an affair with an actress named Antonia de Sancha. The revelations caused a media frenzy and ignited a public scandal, particularly because Mellor was known for his vocal support of the "Back to Basics" campaign, which aimed to promote traditional family values and moral integrity within the Conservative Party. The affair scandal was further compounded by allegations of unethical conduct and misuse of his ministerial position. It was reported that Mellor had accepted free holidays and other perks from wealthy acquaintances, including the businessman and socialite Mona Bauwens. These revelations raised questions about Mellor's integrity and judgment as a government minister.

Mellor initially denied any wrongdoing and attempted to weather the storm of media scrutiny. However, as the scandal intensified and public pressure mounted, he eventually resigned from his position as Heritage Minister in September 1992. His
resignation marked a significant blow to John Major's government, which was already grappling with internal divisions and political challenges. Overall, the David Mellor scandal epitomized the political and moral challenges facing the Conservative Party during John Major's government. It underscored the public's disillusionment with politicians perceived as hypocritical or lacking in integrity, and it contributed to a broader sense of crisis within the Conservative Party during this period. There was also the Tim Yeo affair; the Steven Norris love child and the Piers Marchant affair to add to Major’s problems. Deja vu anyone?

From the late 1980s through the 90s, I was retained by one of my international blue-chip clients to lobby for them in both the House of Commons and Lords. This entailed taking MPs and Lords to all the best social events like Ascot, Wimbledon, Henley, etc and entertaining them and making sure that the directors of the company had the politicians’ attention. This process is as old as time and has always proved productive. Whilst travelling to and from these events the politicians would always discuss the current situation and the mess they were in. They were all convinced that they would be in opposition for at least a generation, or much longer. How right they were and how familiar it sounds now. However, this time the situation is far worse.

Back in 1997 the opposition was led by the charismatic Tony Blair and Labour won
by a margin of 324 seats. This time it will clearly be much, much worse; even though the opposition is led by the charisma-free Keir Starmer. The current situation the Conservatives have created for themselves beggars belief. Even with all the excuses of the pandemic et al, it is staggering that in just two years they can turn an 80-seat majority into virtual annihilation. The predictions are extremely bleak for them whichever way you look at it.

This raises the question of who will be in opposition? The Labour Party is predicted to win over 400 seats and the polls are saying, as I write this, that Reform is on 14% just a smidge behind the Conservatives with the Lib Dems trailing a significant
distance behind. I know it is extremely unlikely that a political party could achieve sitting on the opposition benches this soon after its inception, but it is a remote possibility. The most likely outcome will no doubt see the Tory Party on the opposition benches in very diminished numbers, and not just committed to a footnote in history at this juncture. However, the opposition power will be so diminished that Starmer will be able to walk through any policy he fancies. This is a hugely frightening prospect, not least because they still have Corbyn in the Labour belfry awaiting his resurrection! No matter who you support, I believe we are in for a very bumpy future as clearly none of them are up to the job of leading our once glorious country.

It really is so frightening that neither the UK or the USA can produce leaders of stature, character, and ability. So, in the current circumstances we are facing at the very least a five- year nightmare, more likely ten. I would like to add that possibly my feelings are due to my age and having seen so much better in the past, but young people also feel disenfranchised too by the total lack of good options.